基于MD模型的青藏高速公路进藏客运量预测[范文]

 客运交通量预测是进行交通状态评价，综合分析建设项目必要性和可行性的前提和基础。随着工程技术的提高以及西藏地区经济发展的需要，在西藏地区修建更为便捷的快速通道——高速公路已经成为发展的必然。统计资料显示，进藏出行已成为涉藏出行的主体部分，受到西藏地区地形，气候，海拔等特殊因素的影响，进藏客运交通量预测有着更为明显的复杂性和不可预测性，出行者出行的影响因素众多，且对出行者的影响机理也较为复杂。本论文对进藏出行的影响因素及影响机理进行系统性研究，并对MD (Minimum Drain)模型进行了改善与深化，完善了其理论，提出了适合于进藏客运量预测的MD模型。

论文首先对国内外公路客运量的预测方法进行了分析与总结，对本文将要采用的MD模型预测方法的国内外研究成果进行了阐述。

其次，对MD模型的基本原理，假设条件及预测步骤进行了简单的介绍，对模型中涉及的时间价值，出行牺牲量，出行效用等概念，影响因素及计算方法进行了分析与研究，得到客运显化率的计算方法以及未来年客运量。

再次，通过基础数据资料的收集并结合公路OD调查及出行意向调查数据，分析研究了进藏出行的客运特点及出行者方式选择特点，并总结了进藏出行的影响因素及方式选择影响因素，提出了适合于进藏出行客运量预测的MD模型，对其中时间价值，出行牺牲量等指标提出了新的计算方法，并对MD模型进行了进藏出行客运量预测的适应性分析。

最后，以规划中的青藏高速公路（以下皆简称青藏高速）为例，预测了未来年（2020年）青藏高速的进藏客运量，并对预测结果进行了有效性验证。结果显示，2020年，青藏高速的进藏客运量达到119.47万人次，通过与传统四阶段法的对比分析可以说明MD模型在进藏客运量的预测上是合理与可靠的。

关键词：青藏高速，MD模型，出行牺牲量，时间价值，客运量预测

Abstract

Passenger traffic forecast is the prerequisite and basis for carrying out the evaluation of traffic status and comprehensively analyzing the necessity and feasibility of construction project. With the improvement of engineering technology and the need of economic development in Tibet, the construction of more convenient in the Tibet area - the expressway has become the inevitability of development. Datas show that trip into Tibet has become the main part of Tibet trip, by the Tibetan terrain, climate, altitude and other special factors, the passenger transport volume forecast has become more obvious complexity and unpredictability. There are many influencing factors of travel, and the impact mechanism of traveler is also complicated. This paper makes a systematic study on the influencing factors and influencing mechanism of the Tibet tour,and puts forward the MD model which is suitable for the forecast of the passenger volume into Tibet.

Firstly, the paper summarizes the forecasting methods of domestic and foreign expressway passenger traffic, and set forth the domestic and foreign research results of MD model.

Secondly, the basic principles, assumptions and forecasting steps of the MD model are briefly described. The concept, influencing factors and calculation methods of the time value, travel sacrifice, travel utility are analyzed and studied, to obtain the potential passenger turnover the obvious passenger rate calculation method and the final future passenger volume.

Thirdly, through the collection of basic data and the investigation data of road OD survey and travel intention survey, this paper analyzes the characteristics of passenger into Tibet and the characteristics of traveler's choice of method, and summarizes the influencing factors of travel and method choice .And the adaptability analysis of the MD model is carried out.

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