摘  要

油气管道风险评价技术是近年来的一项热门的研究课题，事故后果分析又是其中一个重要的组成部分。目前，我国的油气管道安全形势相当严峻，由于成品油使用便捷，使其成为盗油分子的首选，故第三方破坏在管线事故原因中占有的比例越来越高。一旦发生成品油泄漏事故，将对管道公司乃至于全社会产生震撼性的损失和影响。

本论文重在研究成品油管道失效后果，其目的在于定量评价一个可能发生的泄漏事故对公众和环境造成危害的严重程度。论文中简要介绍了油气管道风险评价技术的发展情况和研究现状，并系统地分析了成品油管道失效后果可能性影响因素、失效后果影响因素，而且建立了管道失效后果事件树，分析了失效后果影响图和表现形式。

本论文还分析了高后果区油气管道泄漏火灾爆炸灾害影响因素和特点。在分析泄漏介质流体特性的基础上，对火灾爆炸进行定量评价。分析了灾害的四种破坏作用的特性和破坏范围。根据灾害范围，对管道风险进行定量评价，计算了个人风险和社会风险。

最后，还对成品油管道高后果区提出风险缓解措施，主要从应急反应、管道的清理检测与维修、善后工作和应急预案方面进行阐述。

关键词：成品油管道；高后果区；失效后果；风险评价。

Abstract

The techniques of risk assessment for oil and gas pipeline have been a pop question for research in the near future. And analyzing the accident's consequence is a most important work when applying this technique. In the recent years, the safety position of pipelines is very critical in our country. These men who steal oil like to destroy the product pipeline because of the product have been used easily. Therefore, the third party destroying becomes a more and more important factor, which leads to accident of pipeline. Furthermore, if the product pipeline has leaked, will bring about some earthshaking losing and influence to the company of pipeline and the society etc.
    This paper focuses on studying products pipeline consequences of failure, the purpose of quantitative evaluation of a possible leak to the public and the environment against the severity of. Paper gave a briefing on oil and gas pipeline risk assessment of the development of technology and research the status quo, and systematic analysis of the consequences of failure Products Pipeline possibility of influencing factors, the consequences of failure, and the establishment of a pipeline failure consequence of the incident tree, the consequences of failure maps and manifestations.
    This paper also analyzed the high-consequence areas oil and gas pipeline leak fire and explosion hazards factors and characteristics. Four of the damages’ property and area is analyzed. According to disaster areas, the quantitative of the risk of pipelines is be done, assessment of the calculation of personal risk and social risk is also be done.
    At last, the product pipeline, high-consequence areas proposed risk mitigation measures, mainly from the emergency response, detection and clean-up pipeline maintenance, rehabilitation work and contingency plans in elaborate.

Keywords：products pipeline; high-consequence areas; consequences of failure; risk 

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